El Niño 2026–2027 is no longer a distant risk.

NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization, and CIIFEN confirm an event that is intensifying rapidly, with a probability above 90% of reaching a very strong category and a peak expected toward late 2026. For Ecuador, the signal combines exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures, above-normal rainfall on the coast, and a precipitation deficit in the Amazon. This uneven geography calls for far more precise decisions than a generic national alert.

El Niño 2026–2027: the business risk map for Ecuador turns meteorological information and economic background into a management tool. The report shows how the hazard transmits to assets, operations, logistics, productive biology, prices, and liquidity. It identifies critical points for agriculture, bananas, cocoa, shrimp, fishing, mining, roads, ports, energy, water, telecommunications, insurance, and people.

The analysis incorporates the latest available foreign trade figures. Between January and July 2026, Ecuador exported USD 17,564.9 million in non-oil goods. Shrimp, mining, bananas, and cocoa accounted for 73.3% of that value. The report explains why this concentration matters for national continuity, but avoids the error of presenting it as a probable loss. It also reviews the 1997–1998 precedent—roughly USD 2,880 million in damages and losses at the prices of the time—to understand the importance of productive and indirect effects without mechanically extrapolating the past.

The regional comparison shows that Ecuador and Peru face the most direct exposure to coastal rainfall and marine warming, while Colombia, Brazil, and Chile present different combinations of water excess and deficit. This perspective makes it possible to assess suppliers, markets, and international routes that may fail simultaneously or transmit inflation and shortages even when a plant remains operational.

The product includes three DATAPAIS scenarios for stress testing: operational interruption, localized severe shock, and critical corridor failure. Their ranges are transparent assumptions—not predictions—designed so that each company can calculate sales at risk, extraordinary costs, uninsured damage, and cash survival. A risk and opportunity matrix also identifies potential demand in engineering, maintenance, logistics, storage, backup energy, telecommunications, insurance, credit, health, and climate analytics.

The practical value lies in its roadmap. Recommendations prioritize actions for the next 15, 30, and 90 days: georeferencing assets and suppliers, testing routes and generators, clearing drainage, reviewing policies, financing contingent liquidity, selectively increasing inventories, and setting suspension and restart thresholds. The report is aimed at boards, management, investors, exporters, SMEs, insurers, banks, chambers of commerce, and suppliers that need to act on evidence, without alarmism or false precision.